
Bear Markets and Bull Markets: What Does the Data Show About Frequency and Duration?
2025's complex economic picture took on another dimension over the weekend as the U.S. waded into tensions in the Middle East. Setting aside the important humanitarian and security issues I know we're all concerned about, it's understandable that investors might worry about more disruption to their financial plans, especially if they're retired. The good news, from this very narrow perspective, is that the markets have responded well to the potential ceasefire between Israel and Iran. But issues around war, as well as the supply, demand, and production of oil, are always factors that could make Wall Street jittery. Given that we're also still staring down potential tariffs against China, uncertain inflation and interest rates, and deep political divisions at home, should folks be preparing for a bear market? The short answer is yes, because investors should always be prepared to manage the inevitable peaks and valleys of the markets. But rather than making predictions right now, I think it might be helpful to break down the differences between bear and bull markets. A little extra perspective might give you some added peace of mind as you think about your financial planning. To set the stage, when I entered the financial services industry in the early 90’s the Dow Jones Industrial Average was around 3,000. Today it sits at 43,000. The wealth-building opportunities in the capital markets can be very powerful over time if understood accurately. Although, it’s important to note that the returns do not come in a straight line.