Staying the Course Through AI Upheaval, Tax Changes, and Geopolitical Uncertainty
The 2026 news cycle is spinning at a dizzying pace. Technology is rapidly upending how we work and live. With midterm elections on the horizon, our leaders in Washington are sharpening their visions for the future and policy proposals. And geopolitical tensions across the globe are giving investors something new to react to -- and worry about -- on a daily basis.
On today's show, we unpack some of the major stories we're monitoring and give you a clear-eyed perspective on the current economic outlook.
Is AI Advancing at "The Speed of Trust"?
Heading into the home stretch of tax season, you've probably seen articles about AI tax prep. You might even have friends or family who have decided to let AI do a bit more of the heavy lifting this year.
So, has AI advanced enough that you should trust it with your taxes?
In our opinion, no.
AI chatbots still frequently "hallucinate" answers to even simple questions, manufacturing results they think the asker wants even if the facts and figures aren't accurate.
AI can also misread documents and data -- like the numbers on all those PDFs you're organizing -- which can lead to inaccurate calculations. There's also no guarantee that the company that owns your AI of choice is protecting or "forgetting" sensitive data (account numbers, Social Security number, etc.) that you upload.
AI also doesn't always have the most up-to-date "knowledge" on recent changes to tax law -- or to your life. So it could overlook a key deduction or fail to categorize an important financial move correctly.
And if AI "hallucinates" a mistake on your tax documents, the IRS is going to hold you responsible, not ChatGPT, Gemini, or Claude.
Some experts estimate that AI has advanced faster than any other technology in history. But for users, AI can only move at "the speed of trust," the point where we can trust it to handle tasks on its own. Lower-stakes tasks, like budgeting and automating payments and investment account contributions, are a safer place to start upgrading your financial workflow. Leave tax planning and prep to the professionals: your CPA and your financial advisor.
Will New Capital Gains Rules Shake Up the Housing Market?
Under current law, if you sell your primary residence, you can exclude up to $250,000 of capital gains if you are single and $500,000 if you are married from your taxable income for the year.
A recent proposal from Rep. Tim Burchett of Tennessee to eliminate capital gains tax on primary and secondary residences altogether has gained some traction. This change could, in theory, incentivize more sales in a very competitive housing market, while also giving sellers extra money to buy goods, invest, and stimulate more economic activity.
Before you hammer a For Sale sign in front of your vacation house, remember that this is still just a proposal. It's also a proposal that would only affect around 10% of homeowners, mostly in high-cost coastal states, and many of whom just received a big tax benefit when the One Big Beautiful Bill Act raised the SALT cap. And even if capital gains were eliminated, potential sellers might still prefer older, lower mortgage rates to buying a different house at a higher rate.
If there's any movement on this or any other significant tax proposals, we'll follow up on a future episode.
How Could Geopolitics Affect My Financial Plan?
Perhaps the most pressing concerns for investors right now are ongoing conflicts around the world, especially the wars in Ukraine and Iran. Further rattling the markets are the potential for AI to disrupt the job market as well as global trade tensions.
First, rest assured that "How does this affect me?" isn't a selfish question to ask. The big-picture concerns in the world right now are very real. But so are your monthly energy bills and the accounts you're counting on to fund your retirement.
It's also important to separate the headlines from the economic fundamentals, which don't often make for a snappy social media post.
And the numbers that we follow closely at Keen Wealth continue to trend in the right direction. Perhaps most importantly, the primary driver of market growth, corporate earnings, are up around 10% for the year. There's some concern that AI might become either a bubble or a drag on other tech stocks. But the economy is bigger than any one stock, or any one sector. Folks building a diversified portfolio should be in a position to adjust if necessary and even take advantage of any downturns that might occur.
As for the geopolitical situation, recent studies by Vanguard and First Trust analyzed market performance following events like Pearl Harbor, the Cuban Missile Crisis, the Gulf War, 9/11, COVID, and Brexit. The data shows that while these kinds of events usually cause short-term volatility, the markets have recovered quickly: on average, the markets have been up 8% six months after a recent geopolitical shock and up 12.9% one year later.
Own Your Future
Charles Schwab’s Liz Ann Sonders recently told our podcast co-host, Steve Sanduski, that “Investing is about owning. Gambling is about hoping.”
This brought to mind another wise quote from Warren Buffett: “Investing should be more like watching paint dry or watching grass grow.”
With all the data and news at our fingertips, it’s easy to get sucked into the excitement of the day or what the “prediction markets” are saying about what might happen tomorrow. But if you follow a comprehensive plan with discipline and focus, you can take ownership over your financial future rather than just hope for the best.
If you have questions about how your financial plan is built to weather the ups and downs we’re all going through right now, get in touch with Keen Wealth.
About Bill
Bill Keen is a financial advisor with over 30 years of industry experience. As the founder and CEO of Keen Wealth Advisors, a registered investment advisory firm, he focuses on providing personalized retirement planning designed to help people thrive before and during their retirement years. With a passion for educating others, Bill regularly blogs about retirement planning, hosts the podcast Keen on Retirement, and has contributed to Forbes, U.S. News and World Report, Reuters, Wall Street Journal’s Market Watch, Yahoo Finance, and other publications. Based in Overland Park, Kansas, Bill and his team work with clients throughout the greater Kansas City area and across the nation. To learn more, connect with him on LinkedIn or visit www.keenwealthadvisors.com.
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